futility: Interim Analysis of Operational Futility in Randomized Trials with Time-to-Event Endpoints and Fixed Follow-Up

Randomized clinical trials commonly follow participants for a time-to-event efficacy endpoint for a fixed period of time. Consequently, at the time when the last enrolled participant completes their follow-up, the number of observed endpoints is a random variable. Assuming data collected through an interim timepoint, simulation-based estimation and inferential procedures in the standard right-censored failure time analysis framework are conducted for the distribution of the number of endpoints–in total as well as by treatment arm–at the end of the follow-up period. The future (i.e., yet unobserved) enrollment, endpoint, and dropout times are generated according to mechanisms specified in the simTrial() function in the 'seqDesign' package. A Bayesian model for the endpoint rate, offering the option to specify a robust mixture prior distribution, is used for generating future data (see the vignette for details).

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