The purpose of this package is to fit a modified Connor-Mosimann distribution to quantiles for multinomial problems elicited from experts. It also includes functions to fit Connor-Mosimann and Dirichlet distributions, and to sample from modified Connor-Mosimann and Connor-Mosimann distributions for use in decision analytic models (rtools already provides a function to sample from a Dirichlet distribution).
For details on how to use please see the accompanying vignette.
# Fit a distribution to elicited quantiles Outcomes <- c("Remission","Progression","Dead") RawData <- matrix(data = c(0.43, 0.55, 0.65, 0.16, 0.27, 0.46, 0.03, 0.18, 0.23 ),ncol=3,byrow=TRUE) SearchParams <- c(10000,100) #number of iterations, max number of searches ModCMorCM <- 1 # if 1 will fit mCM, if 0 will fit CM Quantiles <- c(0.025,0.5,0.975) # example here is 95% credibility limits and median. mCM <- fitModCM(Outcomes, RawData, SearchParams, ModCMorCM, Quantiles) # Sample from the fitted distribution n <- 100 Z <- mCM[1:(nrow(mCM)-1),1:4] mCMSamples <- rModCM(n,Z) colnames(mCMSamples) <- Outcomes