Ensemble Algorithms for Time Series Forecasting with Modeltime

A `modeltime`

extension that implements ** ensemble forecasting methods** including model averaging, weighted averaging, and stacking.

- Getting Started with Modeltime: Learn the basics of forecasting with Modeltime.
- Getting Started with Modeltime Ensemble: Learn the basics of forecasting with Modeltime ensemble models.

Load the following libraries.

```
library(tidymodels)
library(modeltime)
library(modeltime.ensemble)
library(tidyverse)
library(timetk)
```

Create a *Modeltime Table* using the `modeltime`

package.

```
m750_models
#> # Modeltime Table
#> # A tibble: 3 x 3
#> .model_id .model .model_desc
#> <int> <list> <chr>
#> 1 1 <workflow> ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)[12]
#> 2 2 <workflow> PROPHET
#> 3 3 <workflow> GLMNET
```

Then turn that Modeltime Table into a *Modeltime Ensemble.*

```
ensemble_fit <- m750_models %>%
ensemble_average(type = "mean")
ensemble_fit
#> -- Modeltime Ensemble -------------------------------------------
#> Ensemble of 3 Models (MEAN)
#>
#> # Modeltime Table
#> # A tibble: 3 x 3
#> .model_id .model .model_desc
#> <int> <list> <chr>
#> 1 1 <workflow> ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)[12]
#> 2 2 <workflow> PROPHET
#> 3 3 <workflow> GLMNET
```

To forecast, just follow the Modeltime Workflow.

```
# Calibration
calibration_tbl <- modeltime_table(
ensemble_fit
) %>%
modeltime_calibrate(testing(m750_splits), quiet = FALSE)
# Forecast vs Test Set
calibration_tbl %>%
modeltime_forecast(
new_data = testing(m750_splits),
actual_data = m750
) %>%
plot_modeltime_forecast(.interactive = FALSE)
```

*My Talk on High-Performance Time Series Forecasting*

Time series is changing. **Businesses now need 10,000+ time series forecasts every day.** This is what I call a *High-Performance Time Series Forecasting System (HPTSF)* - Accurate, Robust, and Scalable Forecasting.

**High-Performance Forecasting Systems will save companies MILLIONS of dollars.** Imagine what will happen to your career if you can provide your organization a “High-Performance Time Series Forecasting System” (HPTSF System).

I teach how to build a HPTFS System in my **High-Performance Time Series Forecasting Course**. If interested in learning Scalable High-Performance Forecasting Strategies then take my course. You will learn:

- Time Series Machine Learning (cutting-edge) with
`Modeltime`

- 30+ Models (Prophet, ARIMA, XGBoost, Random Forest, & many more) - NEW - Deep Learning with
`GluonTS`

(Competition Winners) - Time Series Preprocessing, Noise Reduction, & Anomaly Detection
- Feature engineering using lagged variables & external regressors
- Hyperparameter Tuning
- Time series cross-validation
- Ensembling Multiple Machine Learning & Univariate Modeling Techniques (Competition Winner)
- Scalable Forecasting - Forecast 1000+ time series in parallel
- and more.